If you have ever gone to the race track and placed a bet then you know the feeling of wanting to beat the bookies. You want to be able to bet with a level of certainty as to which horses you think will come in. The favourite will not always win and sometimes there is that really long odds horse which romps home.
But how can you predict better than the bookies?
There is no way you can be one hundred percent positive of what the horses will do. Could anyone predict if a horse will win by a nose, what difference could have made the nose win instead of the nose lose?
If you are going to try and beat the bookies, then you will need to factor in a vast wealth of factors before the day.
You will want to know the history of the horse for the last five races, what distances it ran, on what grounds, against which horses, what stall it started in, the wind direction and even the temperature.
Then on the day, there are a wealth of factors which could affect horses. The wind direction, if the horse is wearing blinkers for the first time, the jockey weight, how long it has been in the parade ring, how far it has travelled to the meet, what time of day the horse is running, the ground conditions and even the direction of the track.
If you want to beat the bookies then you will have to know more than they do and the bookies manage to make a vast fortune out of their business. They know everything about every horse and have an inside line to most stables.
This is the key to beating any bookie and to getting the best odds for that one sizzling hot horse, which just can not lose. There are horses who show form before a race and there are horses who lose form right before a big race. The people who know this and notice this most are the trainers and the training jockeys.
They ride them and observe them every single day. They notice the difference in stride length and the gait of the horse. They know when a horse is drinking too much or eating too little. They are the way to beat a bookie.
The insider line is vital to winning at a track and that is why the rumour mill and the gossip trail is so rampant within the horse racing community. Freddie who knows Bill, who trains with Claire, has told Stephen that they have a sure-fire winner. Yet at the same time for the same race, Chris has told Alan, who told Lydia, that their horse is completely out of form and wouldn’t win against a three-legged horse.
Beating the bookies seems not to be what you know or what you can research, but rather who you know and what you can draw out of them. Either way, there’s never any smoke without fire.